Fair Price:
-Bottom Price:
-Current Price:
-The power law original formula remains the same. However, the fair price line (which is simply used for managing future price expectations) was lowered to more accurately represent the amount of time bitcoin hovers around it.
Bitcoin is experiencing diminishing returns at a fast rate, despite all the hopium and moon expectations given by analysts and traders online.
The bottom price (which is the most important power law line) will NEVER be lowered or adjusted. If bitcoin deviates below the bottom price then it would mean the power law would be BROKEN and this website would no longer be helpful.
Bitcoin relationship with a power law was discovered by Giovanni Santostasi when he realized that bitcoin's price moved in a straight line when it was plotted in a log-log graph.
This is the only asset that behaves this way, indicating there is something intrinsic about the nature of Bitcoin which allows us to predict its price into the future.
According to the Power Law Model, bitcoin's price is always oscillating around its fair price.
We could say that when bitcoin's price is below its fair price then it is "undervalued" and when it is above it then it is "overvalued"
The bottom price indicates the price which bitcoin will never go below.
These are the formulas:
Power law: 1.0117e-17*(days since genesis block)5.82
New Updated Fair Price: Power law multiplied by 0.71
Bottom Fair Price: Power law multiplied by 0.42
Yes.
This model has been accurately predicting the bitcoin bottom for many years now.
It has only failed one time: March 13th, 2020. The price fell below the bottom for only a few hours due to the pandemic black swan crash.
You can be confident that the price will not go below the bottom unless there is an unexpected worldwide financial crisis.
Here are some links:
Giovanni Santostasi Reddit post: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/18z04kp/15_years_of_btc_power_law/
Giovanni Santostasi Youtube interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oT-L8I_qmVU
Giovanni Santostasi Twitter account: https://twitter.com/Giovann35084111
Harold Christopher Burger article: https://medium.com/quantodian-publications/bitcoins-natural-long-term-power-law-corridor-of-growth-649d0e9b3c94
Harold and Giovanni article: https://medium.com/quantodian-publications/bitcoins-power-law-really-debunked-2e5add103ba9
Bitbo's interactive chart (best viewed on a computer): https://charts.bitbo.io/long-term-power-law/
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